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本帖最后由 最后的神 于 2009-10-27 16:26 编辑
Predict Race Performance
By running several 5K races during your marathon training, you can predict how fast you're capable of going in the marathon itself. This chart was designed by Gerry Purdy and reprinted, in part, from information supplied for Galloway's Book on Running. More extensive charts are offered in Gerry's Computerized Running Training Programs, published in Track & Field News.
1. If you're running your first marathon, use this chart only to see what you could run if you were running to capacity. Then set your goal about two minutes per mile slower than that goal. If your first one is slow and enjoyable (and the two are related), you'll continue to enjoy exercise and benefit from it. You'll have the opportunity to run faster in the next marathon...or the one after that.
2. Run several 5K's on non-long-run weekends. Make sure they are run on certified courses (which have been accurately measured). See what your 5K predicts in the marathon. The more 5K's you run, the better your prediction potential.
3. This prediction is only valid if you have run the 26-to-28 mile-training run (two minutes per mile slower than you could run it) three weeks before the marathon itself. Those with goals of 3:40 or faster need to have also done the mile repeats as prescribed in the new Marathon!
4. If the marathon course is hilly or marathon day weather is above 50 degrees F and over 50 percent humidity, your time will not be as fast as it would be under ideal conditions. As the heat and humidity rise, you must adjust your pace to be more conservative from the first mile of the marathon. Be aware of heat disease symptoms and get help at the first sign of these.
5. Adjustment: Since this table is based upon ideal conditions that never occur together, you must adjust. Also, don't use your best 5K time to predict your marathon performance. Take an average of your best three times, and then add 10 to 20 minutes to the prediction. A conservative pace in the beginning will conserve your resources, allowing you to run faster at the end if you're ready to do so.
第一列是5KM用时，第二列是换算出来的马拉松用时，第三列是换算出来的半程马拉松用时。
第五列是5KM用时，第六列是换算出来的马拉松用时，第七列是换算出来的半程马拉松用时。
有人说，我的5km成绩很好，但是为什么换算出来的马拉松成绩。半程马拉松成绩达不到呢？这时候，你要用42.195公里除以你的马拉松换算出来的理论值，得出每分钟的速度，然后在马拉松里每分钟尽可能按照该速度匀速跑，不要忽快忽慢，这样就可以尽可能跑到理论时间了。业余运动员马拉松体力分配的唯一要诀是按照计算出来的配速匀速跑。
| Race Prediction Chart | 5KTIME
| MARTIME
| HALF
| MARTIME
| 5KTIME
| MARTIME
| HALF
| MARTIME
| 13:20
| 2:10:00
| 1:01:24
| | 16:08
| 2:38:44
| 1:14:45
| | 13:25
| 2:10:46
| 1:01:45
| | 16:15
| 2:39:53
| 1:15:17
| | 13:29
| 2:11:32
| 1:02:06
| | 16:22
| 2:41:02
| 1:15:49
| | 13:34
| 2:12:19
| 1:02:28
| | 16:29
| 2:42:13
| 1:16:22
| | 13:38
| 2:13:06
| 1:02:50
| | 16:36
| 2:43:24
| 1:16:54
| | 13:43
| 2:13:54
| 1:03:13
| | 16:43
| 2:44:37
| 1:17:28
| | 13:48
| 2:14:43
| 1:03:35
| | 16:50
| 2:45:50
| 1:18:03
| | 13:53
| 2:15:32
| 1:03:58
| | 16:57
| 2:47:05
| 1:18:37
| | 13:58
| 2:16:22
| 1:04:22
| | 17:04
| 2:48:21
| 1:19:12
| | 14:03
| 2:17:12
| 1:04:46
| | 17:12
| 2:49:38
| 1:19:48
| | 14:08
| 2:18:04
| 1:05:09
| | 17:19
| 2:50:56
| 1:20:24
| | 14:13
| 2:18:55
| 1:05:33
| | 17:27
| 2:52:15
| 1:21:01
| | 14:18
| 2:19:48
| 1:05:57
| | 17:35
| 2:53:36
| 1:21:38
| | 14:23
| 2:20:41
| 1:06:22
| | 17:43
| 2:54:58
| 1:22:16
| | 14:28
| 2:21:34
| 1:06:47
| | 17:51
| 2:56:21
| 1:22:54
| | 14:34
| 2:22:29
| 1:07:13
| | 17:59
| 2:57:45
| 1:23:33
| | 14:39
| 2:23:24
| 1:07:38
| | 18:07
| 2:59:11
| 1:24:13
| | 14:44
| 2:24:20
| 1:08:04
| | 18:15
| 3:00:39
| 1:24:53
| | 14:50
| 2:25:16
| 1:08:30
| | 18:24
| 3:02:07
| 1:25:34
| | 14:56
| 2:26:13
| 1:08:57
| | 18:32
| 3:03:37
| 1:26:16
| | 15:01
| 2:27:11
| 1:09:24
| | 18:41
| 3:05:09
| 1:26:58
| | 15:07
| 2:28:10
| 1:09:51
| | 18:50
| 3:06:42
| 1:27:41
| | 15:13
| 2:29:10
| 1:10:18
| | 18:59
| 3:08:17
| 1:28:24
| | 15:19
| 2:30:10
| 1:10:47
| | 19:08
| 3:09:53
| 1:29:09
| | 15:25
| 2:31:11
| 1:11:15
| | 19:18
| 3:11:32
| 1:29:54
| | 15:31
| 2:32:13
| 1:11:44
| | 19:27
| 3:13:11
| 1:30:40
| | 15:37
| 2:33:16
| 1:12:13
| | 19:37
| 3:14:53
| 1:31:27
| | 15:43
| 2:34:20
| 1:12:42
| | 19:47
| 3:16:36
| 1:32:14
| | 15:49
| 2:35:25
| 1:13:13
| | 19:57
| 3:18:21
| 1:33:02
| | 15:55
| 2:36:30
| 1:13:43
| | 20:07
| 3:20:08
| 1:33:52
| | 16:02
| 2:37:37
| 1:14:14
| | 20:17
| 3:21:57
| 1:34:42
| |
| Race Prediction Chart Continued | 5KTIME
| MARTIME
| HALF
| MARTIME
| 5KTIME
| MARTIME
| HALF
| MARTIME
| 20:27
| 3:23:48
| 1:35:33
| | 27:55
| 4:44:36
| 2:12:22
| | 20:38
| 3:25:41
| 1:36:25
| | 28:15
| 4:48:17
| 2:14:02
| | 20:49
| 3:27:36
| 1:37:18
| | 28:35
| 4:52:04
| 2:15:44
| | 21:00
| 3:29:34
| 1:38:11
| | 28:56
| 4:55:57
| 2:17:29
| | 21:11
| 3:31:33
| 1:39:07
| | 29:18
| 4:59:56
| 2:19:18
| | 21:23
| 3:33:35
| 1:40:02
| | 29:39
| 5:04:02
| 2:21:08
| | 21:34
| 3:35:39
| 1:40:59
| | 30:02
| 5:08:15
| 2:23:01
| | 21:46
| 3:37:46
| 1:41:57
| | 30:49
| 5:12:34
| 2:24:59
| | 21:58
| 3:39:55
| 1:42:56
| | 30:25
| 5:17:01
| 2:26:59
| | 22:10
| 3:42:06
| 1:43:57
| | 31:13
| 5:21:36
| 2:29:01
| | 22:23
| 3:44:21
| 1:44:57
| | 31:38
| 5:26:19
| 2:31:08
| | 22:36
| 3:46:38
| 1:46:00
| | 32:05
| 5:31:12
| 2:33:30
| | 22:49
| 3:48:58
| 1:47:05
| | 32:31
| 5:36:17
| 2:36:00
| | 23:02
| 3:51:21
| 1:48:10
| | 32:59
| 5:41:23
| 2:38:30
| | 23:16
| 3:53:46
| 1:49:17
| | 33:28
| 5:46:50
| 2:41:00
| | 23:30
| 3:56:15
| 1:50:24
| | 33:55
| 5:51:58
| 2:43:30
| | 23:44
| 3:58:47
| 1:51:33
| | 34:19
| 5:56:01
| 2:46:00
| | 23:58
| 4:01:23
| 1:52:45
| | 34:48
| 6:01:24
| 2:48:00
| | 24:13
| 4:04:02
| 1:53:57
| | 35:05
| 6:05:00
| 2:49:00
| | 24:28
| 4:06:44
| 1:55:11
| | 35:30
| 6:10:00
| 2:51:00
| | 24:43
| 4:09:30
| 1:56:26
| | 35:55
| 6:15:00
| 2:53:00
| | 24:59
| 4:12:20
| 1:57:44
| | 36:20
| 6:20:00
| 2:55:00
| | 25:15
| 4:15:13
| 1:59:03
| | 36:45
| 6:25:00
| 2:57:00
| | 25:31
| 4:18:11
| 2:00:24
| | 37:10
| 6:30:00
| 2:59:00
| | 25:47
| 4:21:13
| 2:01:47
| | 37:35
| 6:35:00
| 3:01:00
| | 26:04
| 4:24:19
| 2:03:11
| | 38:00
| 6:40:00
| 3:03:00
| | 26:22
| 4:27:29
| 2:04:37
| | 38:25
| 6:45:00
| 3:05:00
| | 26:40
| 4:30:45
| 2:06:06
| | 38:50
| 6:50:00
| 3:07:00
| | 26:58
| 4:34:05
| 2:07:36
| | 39:15
| 6:55:00
| 3:09:00
| | 27:16
| 4:37:30
| 2:09:09
| | 39:45
| 7:00:00
| 3:11:00
| | 27:35
| 4:41:00
| 2:10:44
| |
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This chart was taken from Jeff Galloway's new Marathon! (Phidippides Publication, 2000).
http://jeffgalloway.com/resources/predict_performance.html |
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